Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
PolíticaGeopolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElecciónMiddle East3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 74.9%
Pronosticadores
31
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
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Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado8 oct 24, 9:00 UTC1 ene 30, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/
- This question will resolve as Yes if the Iranian Government credibly states that it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.
- For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
- For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).
- The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) will be sufficient to resolve this question as Yes.
- Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as Yes.
