If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElecciónGeopolíticaChina3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 67.9%
Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado15 sept 24, 16:49 UTC31 dic 29, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
PolymarketChina’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiReglas
Resolves according to this question if Trump is elected in 2024, otherwise NA.
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/