¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In which years will humanity still exist? (2050 to 1 million AD)?

Manifold Markets cotiza 2050 AD al 89.2% a fecha de 28 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cómo se liquida In which years will humanity still exist? (2050 to 1 million AD)?

Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I'm interested in how long Manifold thinks humanity will have a non-negligible chance of surviving.

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In which years will humanity still exist? (2050 to 1 million AD)

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2050 AD 89.2%

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I'm interested in how long Manifold thinks humanity will have a non-negligible chance of surviving.

Although many people here are pretty doomy, most would probably agree we don't have a negligible chance of living to 2050 or 2100.
But how long does that hold?
If we successfully get past AGI, our per-year probability of extinction will probably drastically decrease.
Is this enough to carry us all the way to the heat death of the universe, or will even human-aligned AGI be unable to defend against every threat to the survival of humanity?
I would count "humanity" as any group of entities that generally consider themselves to share a common identity with people living today, passed down via an unbroken chain of succession.

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In which years will humanity still exist? (2050 to 1 million AD)

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