In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?
One-OffCiencia14a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 53.1%
Sí 53.1%Pronosticadores
85
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado15 mar 23, 1:46 UTC1 ene 41, 7:59 UTC
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In 2040, I will spend some time reviewing the current state of expert discourse regarding innate psychological differences by biological sex.
- This review will consist of light-to-moderate internet reading, browsing studies that have been completed, and requesting the assistance of any personal acquaintances that can best help inform me.
- I will make a subjective judgment regarding the "experts" on this topic as of 2040, which will likely be a list of individuals who I (with the help of light research) consider best-informed in that future period.
- There needs to be expert "consensus" for this market to resolve.
- If there is no consensus, I will update the market close timing to be 5 years in the future.
- I will continue to push out the close date until there is expert consensus.
