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If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?

PolíticaOne-OffUS Politics Elección3m

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 68.4%

Pronosticadores

31

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 14 horas

Desactualizado

3 jul 26, 20:28 UTC3 ene 27, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Reglas

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the following conditions:
YES: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027, AND Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear officially appoints a registered Democrat to fill the vacancy.
An official appointment is defined as Governor Beshear signing an executive order or certificate of appointment naming a registered Democrat, regardless of whether that appointment is subsequently challenged, blocked by courts, or if the individual is successfully seated in the U.S. Senate.
NO: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before January 3, 2027, but Governor Beshear does not officially appoint a registered Democrat (e.g., if he appoints a Republican, an Independent, or makes no interim appointment at all, allowing the vacancy to proceed directly to an election).
N/A: If Mitch McConnell does not vacate his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027.

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Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat??: Manifold Markets cotiza No al 68% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat??: Está previsto que If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat? se resuelva el 3 de enero de 2027.
¿Cómo se liquida If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat??: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria

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