If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 5:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 76%
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3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado7 oct 26, 2:14 UTC2 ene 28, 17:00 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if VoteHub's polling average of Donald Trump's job approval is 40.0% or higher for January 1, 2028 (the value VoteHub shows for that date).
- If VoteHub's average is unavailable, uses the RealClearPolling average instead.
- Resolves NO otherwise, and N/A if Trump is not President on that date.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House.
