Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?
IAOne-OffEntretenimiento7a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sam Altman 80%Líder entre 17 opciones
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado5 oct 24, 4:15 UTC2 ene 34, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.
- For each real-world person under this question, resolve YES if they, as a character (not necessarily a cameo), say more than one word during the movie, are audibly mentioned, or are visually depicted for more than 20 seconds in total.
- If no qualifying movie about AI has won an Oscar before 2033, all answers resolve NO.
- If an actor in the movie is not playing themselves, resolves YES for the character they depict rather than the actor.
- A significant portion of the movie (>30% of runtime) must be set in the 2020s decade.
- A qualifying movie does not need to be an entirely faithful depiction of historical events as long as the backdrop, setting, and characters are largely drawn from true history.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Sam Altman al 80% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034??
- Está previsto que Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2034.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.