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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Geopolítica
  3. How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

One-OffGeopolíticaMiddle East6m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSin KYC
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Manifold Markets
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm) 100%
Líder entre 13 opciones
Pronosticadores

92

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 2 minutos

6 may 26, 22:3731 dic 26, 23:37

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad
Manifold Markets
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm)
100%

Resultado elegido

7 weeks+ (June 9th, 1pm)99%

Reglas

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst.

Manifold Markets
  • If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.
  • Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.

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Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$62,867.10+2.52%EthereumETH$1,658.07+1.88%SolanaSOL$65.28+1.86%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.73%XRPXRP$1.12+0.74%BNBBNB$596.82+1.84%

Noticias Relacionadas

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Reglas

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst.

Manifold Markets
  • If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.
  • Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.