Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 95.7%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado18 nov 25, 20:23 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.
- Alternatively, if 2 or more of these 3 frontier labs require the mobile app user to keep the app open while the model is reasoning about an answer, or else it won't complete, then this market resolves NO.
Mercados abiertos
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- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 269,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 199,9 mil €
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- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
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+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 4,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 107,5 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,3 M €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 85 mil €
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- 65,3 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 95.7% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026??
- Está previsto que Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? se resuelva el 30 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.