Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?
One-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónPolíticaTecnologíaElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 202612d
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 23 oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 99%
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56
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado10 jun 25, 1:00 UTC5 nov 26, 0:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
[tweet]Forecasters estimated the probability that Elon Musk would significantly back a third party in the midterm elections to be 27% (range: 10% to 50%).
- This would involve committing significant sums of money (>$100M), making public endorsements comparable to those he made during the 2024 Presidential campaign, or even setting up a third party himself.
- For the purpose of this market, these are considered central examples of the kind of clear backing that would resolve this market positively.