Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 92.6%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado24 jun 23, 18:14 UTC2 ene 29, 4:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.
- -"an": must be a single event (we are not combining unrelated smaller disasters).
- -"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.
- -"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement.
- Unless the AI was directly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.
- -"kill": they must have deceased, not merely been injured/poisoned/etc.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2029??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 93% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2029??
- Está previsto que Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2029? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: -"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.