Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

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Datos del 26 oct 2026, 5:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4

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Actualizado hace 1 hora

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11 dic 22, 3:13 UTC1 ene 00, 5:00 UTC

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The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it.

The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
Similar markets for various amounts of warming:

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Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

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