China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?
PolíticaIAOne-OffTecnologíaGeopolíticaRusia / UcraniaChina3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 52.3%
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado30 oct 25, 12:17 UTC1 jul 30, 22:59 UTC
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FutuurReglas
Russia faces severe limitations on its access to AI compute, critical for developing and deploying AI at scale.
- Russia has no ability to indigenously produce AI accelerators or any of their key inputs, and so is entirely reliant on overseas supply.
- Sanctions related to the Russia-Ukraine war cut it off from legal access to western AI chips, though it has been actively smuggling AI compute, with reported routes going through India - https://archive.ph/QpU8Z.
- Its other option would be importing Chinese produced AI accelerators from Huawei, Cambricon etc. though to date there has been no reported cases of exports of these chips outside China.
- One of Russia’s easiest paths to building AI capabilities is in actively seeking Chinese cooperation and access to Chinese chips and models.
- In December 2024 Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Russian state-owned bank and AI leader Sberbank to work with China to further Russia’s AI ecosystem - https://www.cfr.org/article/china-russia-relations-january-2025.
