Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualWarren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway 100%Líder entre 17 opciones
Pronosticadores
55
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+98.4 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado9 jul 25, 21:43 UTC31 dic 26, 22:25 UTC
Tendencias
100%
100%
99.6%
0.5%
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Manifold MarketsReglas
The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.
- Out means not CEO anymore.
- That includes the company being dissolved, bought, etc. If the company splits, to survive they must be leader of the largest part.
- If the company is bought they can only survive by being the CEO of the resulting company.
- If the company changes name, no issue as long as they're still CEO.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
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- 224,7 mil €
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- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
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- 2,3 M €
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
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- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
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- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway al 100% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out?
- Está previsto que CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.