Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 92.4%
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado7 feb 25, 15:15 UTC1 ene 27, 7:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
By December 31, 2026, will a piece of federal legislation be enacted (i.e. passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law, or otherwise become effective) that eliminates or substantially restricts the preferential tax treatment of carried interest for private equity and hedge fund managers?
- Background & Rationale:
- The carried interest tax treatment lets fund managers pay tax at the lower long‐term capital gains rate (roughly 20%) on performance-based income, rather than the higher ordinary income rate (up to about 37%).
- President Trump has repeatedly stated that ending this “loophole” is a priority.
- However, previous attempts—even when championed by Trump—have stalled due to intra-party divisions, strong lobbying by influential financial industry groups, and the challenge of fitting such a change into a broader tax reform package.
- Resolution Criteria:
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 92% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026?
- Está previsto que Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026 se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: By December 31, 2026, will a piece of federal legislation be enacted (i.e. passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law, or otherwise become effective) that eliminates or substantially restricts the preferential tax treatment of carried interest for private equity and hedge fund managers?