Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffUS Politics2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 55.1%
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado8 ene 25, 14:44 UTC1 feb 29, 4:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
GSE exit from government conservatorship could enrich speculative investors in their common and preferred equity, including Bill Ackman who has loudly advocated for their release on Twitter.
- Privatization was a putative goal of the first Trump administration, but fairly little progress was made, in part due to large structural difficulties in accomplishing the goal, including the need for enormous amounts of capital to back the GSEs were they to go private.
- Some of those obstacles have lessened since the first Trump administration ended.
- Fannie and Freddie's equity both trade in the mid $4 range at the time this market opened, compared to about $1 at the recent lows during the Biden administration, and $31 that Bill Ackman suggested as a most likely IPO price.
- Resolution will be based on my personal judgement, and I will not trade in this question.
- Generally an event will count as a "YES" if it ends some or all of the existing government conservatorship and creates a clear path for private investors to be able to receive future cashflows resulting from the GSEs' future profits.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 55% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029??
- Está previsto que Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: GSE exit from government conservatorship could enrich speculative investors in their common and preferred equity, including Bill Ackman who has loudly advocated for their release on Twitter.