Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2050 or earlier 19.7%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
118
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado1 abr 24, 14:37 UTC31 ene 00, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
This market resolves each option as NO if the date passes and Kenshin9000 (or anyone) has not defeated stockfish with an LLM-based chess engine.
- All remaining options resolve YES once an LLM-based engine defeats stockfish (or top engine).
- My resolution criteria are more strict than Mira’s:
- The LLM engine must have higher ELO than the latest stockfish (or whatever the top engine is at resolution time) at blitz timings with 99.9% confidence and be reproduced by 3+ people.
- The LLM engine must not use another chess engine at runtime.
- For the purposes of this market, Large Language Models are 100M+ parameter general-purpose generative text models.
