Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNot by 2040 77%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
43
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado28 sept 23, 19:40 UTC2 ene 40, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
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Manifold MarketsBy 2025, over 50% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?
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ForecastExWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiReglas
This is a long-term market to measure the base rate of it being proven and agreed on that at least one instance of a "UFOs = Aliens" theory was correct before the creation of this market.
- It resolves to the one option representing the current time period when this happens, or "the named outcome" if this does not happen.
- I plan for resolution to be based on Wikipedia, or whatever else is generally agreed to be the most neutral and trusted online encyclopedia.
- I may require several trusted encyclopedias to agree, and am open to suggestions of which ones to trust.
- If Manifold adds the ability to close options early, I will do so when a date passes without any consensus.
- I will not bet in this market, except to set the initial probability.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 211 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 110,5 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 21,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Not by 2040 al 77% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology??
- Está previsto que By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2040.
- ¿Cómo se liquida By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This is a long-term market to measure the base rate of it being proven and agreed on that at least one instance of a "UFOs = Aliens" theory was correct before the creation of this market.