By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?
Health & MedicineOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 79.3%
Pronosticadores
47
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado23 dic 22, 2:32 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Many people do not currently see gene editing to cure e.g., cancer, sickle-cell, or down syndrom as a clear moral good that humanity should be persuing.
- Will this change by 2030?
- Currently, I count ~40% of the most recent tweets containing the term "gene editing" as clearly negative; "gene therapy" is much, much worse.
- Twitter may not be the most approprite source by time of resolution, but I will try to find a broadly equivalnt source of popular opinion.
- When I look at statements of popular opinion, will at least 90% be positive or neutral? By default, I will treat technical statements of valid research as neutral, even if they show negative results or document risks.
- I will search for whatever term or terms are most commonly used in 2030.
