Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
2040-2044 24.2%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+0.2 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado28 dic 24, 2:09 UTC2 ene 00, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CDC cut the childhood vaccine schedule below 11 diseases in 2026?
KalshiEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):
- Overall population: ~0.9% annually (900 per 100,000)
- Ranges from 0.1% (age 30-34) to over 4% (age 80+)
- Accidental deaths account for ~0.04% annually (40 per 100,000)
- If all diseases and aging were cured, mortality would drop to accident-only rates (0.04%), representing a 95%+ reduction from current levels.
- Resolution Criteria
Mercados abiertos
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 18,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volumen total
- 916 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,5 mil €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 863,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1 mil €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2040-2044 al 24% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured??
- Está previsto que In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2100.
- ¿Cómo se liquida In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):