Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 95.3%
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97
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 6 minutos
25 may 24, 22:11 UTC2 ene 35, 6:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.
Manifold MarketsBefore 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?
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PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiReglas
This is an equivalent question to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of @IsaacKing's.
- I expect it to resolve the same, but this is not guaranteed and I will evaluate as independently as possible.
- I may copy clarifications from that market, but that is per my judgment.
- The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English.
- For example, "defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons", "build a creeper farm out of TNT", "create an 8-bit addition machine with redstone", "locate the nearest witch hut to coordinates [1024, 1024]", "fill that chest with eggs in less than 24 hours", etc. It must be capable of performing the task with similar efficiency and outcomes to a competent and knowledgeable human, in a large multiplayer server.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,1 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 resultados más
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 resultados más
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 44,4 mil €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 95% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft??
- Está previsto que Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2035.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This is an equivalent question to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of @IsaacKing's.