Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualGemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash 100%Líder entre 18 opciones
Pronosticadores
110
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-13.7 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 25 minutos
1 ago 26, 13:5731 ago 26, 23:59
Tendencias
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Reglas
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026.
- A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
- Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5").
- Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family.
- When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
- Please ask for clarifications.
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt93%
- Before Dec 1, 2026+4.0pt92%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+3.0pt92%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 158,8 mil €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+36 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 168,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 155,2 mil €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.9pt92%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%
+10 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,89%
- October 31,+2.0pt83%
- October 15,-16.0pt53%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68.9%
- Grok-1.7pt10.7%
- ChatGPT-3.6pt8.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 7,9 M €
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- BMW Championship Winner
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- XRP price on August 21
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- ZEC price on August 21
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de August 2026 AI model releases?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash al 100% a fecha de 21 de agosto de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve August 2026 AI model releases?
- Está previsto que August 2026 AI model releases se resuelva el 31 de agosto de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida August 2026 AI model releases?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026.