Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 55%
Pronosticadores
329
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
20 dic 25, 2:37 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI flips Apple before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Aleph Alpha and Cohere merge in 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030
- [tweet]Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).
- Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.8pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 70,3 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 72.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 54,4 mil €
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude90.7%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT0.9%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 21,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 21,9 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 20,9 mil €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de ¿Anthropic supera a Apple antes de 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 55% a fecha de 15 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve ¿Anthropic supera a Apple antes de 2030??
- Está previsto que ¿Anthropic supera a Apple antes de 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida ¿Anthropic supera a Apple antes de 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030