Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 60.8%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 minutos
10 sept 26, 11:17 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI flips the script and buys or takes over Microsoft by mid 2031
Manifold MarketsAnthropic flips Apple before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves yes if OpenAI is worth more than Apple in market capitalization before 2030
- If OpenAI is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).
- Inspired by @/Bayesian/anthropic-laps-apple-in-2030 credit @Bayesian
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.8pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 70,3 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 72.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 54,4 mil €
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude90.7%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT0.9%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 21,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 21,9 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 20,9 mil €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de OpenAI flips Apple before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 61% a fecha de 15 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve OpenAI flips Apple before 2030??
- Está previsto que OpenAI flips Apple before 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida OpenAI flips Apple before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves yes if OpenAI is worth more than Apple in market capitalization before 2030