A fusion power plant will generate a net 100 megawatt of electricity by the beginning of 2063
Salud y medicinaOne-Off
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 4:33 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 77.7%
Sí 77.7%Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado25 mar 23, 3:44 UTC1 ene 63, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the most numerous type of fusion power plant in 2100?
Manifold MarketsBy Dec 31, 2035, will any nuclear fusion power plant have delivered at least 100 MW of net electrical power, 30 day ave.
Manifold MarketsWhich country will produce the first >1GW nuclear fusion power plant to return energy back to the grid?
Manifold MarketsWill Helion Energy have a power plant in operation by the end of 2028?
ForecastExIs Cheryl Scott from ABC CHICAGO pregnant????!?!??? 🤰
Manifold MarketsReglas
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
- Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions.
- (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
- Clarification:
- Conditional on no AGI or population collapse.
- Because of the likely transformative nature of AGI and superintelligence, I phrase many of my predictions about the future as conditional on no AGI so that the predictions are less dependent on AGI timeline estimates.
