1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.
One-OffIATecnología3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 70.1%
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42
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado8 mar 24, 4:51 UTC2 ene 27, 7:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
This market made in response to this article.
- One-hour AGI: Beating humans at problem sets/exams, composing short articles or blog posts, executing most tasks in white-collar jobs (e.g., diagnosing patients, providing legal opinions), conducting therapy, etc. One-day AGI: Beating humans at negotiating business deals, developing new apps, running scientific experiments, reviewing scientific papers, summarizing books, etc. One-month AGI: Beating humans at carrying out medium-term plans coherently (e.g., founding a startup), supervising large projects, becoming proficient in new fields, writing large software applications (e.g., a new operating system), making novel scientific discoveries, etc. One-year AGI: These AIs would beat humans at basically everything.
- Mainly because most projects can be divided into sub-tasks that can be completed in shorter timeframes.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 70.1% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.?
- Está previsto que 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market made in response to this article.