Will an independent or third-party candidate win a state?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección2a
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletosSin precio significativo
Datos del 6 nov 2026, 14:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Punto medio del libro seleccionado
No · —
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
—
Precio guardado
No 95.5%
No 95.5%Calidad del mercado
30 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Interés abierto
0 US$
Interés abierto desconocidoCompra / Venta
— / —
NoSpread
—
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado6 nov 26, 0:00 UTC19 dic 28, 14:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Cierre anticipado:
- Sí
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidad de mercado · No
Cargando el libro seleccionado…
—
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhat party will the next third party candidate to win a state in the US presidential election
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate win any state trump won by 10% or more in 2024?
Manifold MarketsThird-party share of the 2028 presidential popular vote?
KalshiWill any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?
KalshiReglas
La regla exacta de este resultado no está disponible.
- A state or the District of Columbia is counted when the candidate with the most votes statewide in its certified results is neither the Democratic Party's nor the Republican Party's nominee for President. Write-in candidates count. Electoral votes, including any cast by unpledged or faithless electors, do NOT decide a state's winner. A party's nominee is the candidate that party officially nominates for President. A nominee who is also listed under another party's line, such as the Working Families Party in New York, is still that party's nominee and does NOT count as independent or third party. A candidate who is endorsed by either party but is not its nominee counts. A candidate listed on a state's ballot as the Democratic or Republican candidate in place of that party's nominee does NOT count. In Maine and Nebraska, only the statewide vote counts. In a state that counts ranked-choice ballots, such as Maine, the candidate with the most votes is the one leading the final round of the certified tabulation. Winning a congressional district does NOT count. Resolution is based on certified results only, not preliminary results.
Reglas de cada resultado
- No
- La regla exacta de este resultado no está disponible.
- Yes
- La regla exacta de este resultado no está disponible.
