What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address?
33.0% (24h)GeopolíticaOne-Off
KalshiCerradoComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónEste mercado se resolvió: Taiwan (99%)
Resuelto: 30 may 2026, 15:45
Resultado Ganador
Taiwan
A 7 días
—
A 24 horas
—
Probabilidad implícita actualCeasefire 1%-33.0%Líder entre 17 opciones
Calidad del mercado
40 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
1,6 mil €
Liquidez
1,4 mil €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
- / 100.0%
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 días
Desactualizado28 may 26, 2:0030 may 26, 5:05
Cronología de Probabilidad
Ceasefire1%
Drone1%
Taiwan99%
Oil1%
Ukraine1%
AI / Artificial Intelligence99%
America First99%
Russia / Russian1%
Venezuela99%
Nuclear99%
Terrorist / Terrorism99%
Lethal99%
NATO99%
Trump (3+ times)99%
National Security99%
Event does not qualify1%
China / Chinese99%
1%
1%
99%
1%
1%
99%
Este mercado ha cerrado. El trading simulado solo está disponible en mercados abiertos.
Mercados Relacionados
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
6,5 M €December 31: 83%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
4,1 M €July 31: 89%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
1,2 M €Sí: 1%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket]
30,7 mil €Sí: 46%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
4,6 mil €Sí: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US-Iran nuclear deal?
3 mil €Before July: 20%KALSHI
KALSHIActivos en estos temas
Noticias Relacionadas
Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto News
Pentagon adds Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to China’s military-linked list Crypto News
No-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.News
Major cryptocurrencies under pressure as oil jumps 3%Coindesk
Bitcoin recedes to $63,000 as Iran-Israel trade strikes and Korean stocks crashCoindesk
Year-end odds on Israel–Indonesia ties shift in PolymarketBlockchain.NewsReglas
If a qualifying event does not occur, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Video of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 will be used.
- Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
- For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.