Probabilidad implícita actual
Reform UK 92%Líder entre 5 opciones
Calidad del mercado
100 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
127,2 mil €
Liquidez
106,8 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
90.0% / 92.0%
Spread
2.2%
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 minutos
7 jul 26, 14:451 sept 27, 14:00
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Reform UK92%
Comparar plataformas· Reform UK
Ordenado por volumen de 24h
También disponible en Polymarket
Clacton by-election Winner
11m
91%
50%
50%
+49 resultados más
100 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución
Volumen total309,3 mil €
Volumen 24h309,3 mil €
POLYMARKET
También disponible en Smarkets
Clacton By-Election - Winner
0%
14.7%
0%
+4 resultados más
49 • Baja calidadSpread desconocidoBaja liquidez
Volumen total17,5 mil €
Volumen 24h17,5 mil €
SMARKETSReglas
If Reform UK wins the 2026 Clacton by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$145.2k7 jul2d de datos8 jul
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If Reform UK wins the 2026 Clacton by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.