KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Before Jan 1, 2028 54%
Calidad del mercado
46 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
7,5 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
11.0% / 16.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 minutos
27 ene 26, 15:00 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
PolymarketWill Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
PolymarketWill Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
KalshiWill Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAlberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsKRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:the Associated PressReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsBBC NewsFinancial TimesThe GuardianPoliticoCNNFox NewsABC NewsCBS NewsNBC NewsAl Jazeera EnglishDeutsche WelleFrance 24 EnglishNHK World-JapanChannel NewsAsiaThe South China Morning PostThe Times of IndiaThe Globe and Mail
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies.
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify.
- Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify.
- Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 691,8 mil €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence??
- Kalshi cotiza Before Jan 1, 2028 al 54% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence??
- Está previsto que Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.