Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be arrested in 2026?
Política de EE. UU.One-OffAmérica LatinaCrimen y justicia2m
FutuurComprobar disponibilidadDatos de resolución verificadosProbabilidad implícita actual
No 90%
No 90%Calidad del mercado
34 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
54,8 €
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858,9 €
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Actualizado hace 1 minuto
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This event predicts whether Eduardo Bolsonaro will be arrested at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- For this market, an “arrest” means physical detention by law enforcement authorities with the intent to hold him in custody (in Brazil or any other country).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmation from competent law enforcement or judicial authorities (e.g., official statements, court records, or custody documentation).
- If Eduardo Bolsonaro is arrested (as defined above) during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Detentions during routine questioning at a border/airport, or other temporary holds that do not escalate into an arrest, will not qualify.