FutuurComprobar disponibilidadDatos de resolución verificadosProbabilidad implícita actual
No 92%
No 92%Calidad del mercado
31 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
348,8 €
Baja liquidezTraders
6
Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
John Swinney still First Minister of Scotland through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Scotland leave the UK by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scotland leave the UK before 2030
Manifold MarketsWho will succeed John Swinney as First Minister of Scotland?
Manifold MarketsIf Scotland leaves the UK, will they join NATO within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketReglas
This event predicts whether Scotland will formally become an independent state separate from the United Kingdom at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official UK and Scottish government acts or international recognition confirming independence.
- If Scotland formally becomes an independent state during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Referendums, negotiations, or legislative steps that do not result in formal independence taking effect will not count.
- If official documentation is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.