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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

0.1% (24h)One-OffGeopolitics18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 99%
Market quality

100 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$30K

Liquidity

$187.2K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

98.5% / 98.6%

Spread

0.1%

Tight spread
7d Change

+0.4%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Jan 13, 26, 9:17 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes99%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
  • This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
  • Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
  • This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
  • Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.