PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 90.1%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$12.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 10.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 10:40 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the “Stop climate shakedowns act” pass by the end of 2026?
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KalshiBy end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsRules
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
- A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029.
- Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
- The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays.
- As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00).
- The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes96%
- No4%
- Total Vol
- $125.8K
- 24h Vol
- $125.8K
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by which date??
- Polymarket prices No at 90% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by which date? resolve?
- Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.