PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 8%
December 31 8%Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$25
Liquidity
$13.4K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$9K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
16
7d Change
-1.6 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 26, 25, 5:28 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
June 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla release a two door Model Y car for $30,000 or less before 2027?
KalshiWill Elon Musk's Tesla release a super long-term battery or breakthrough energy technology that lasts months or years wi
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla release a car using solid-state battery technology by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla release a petrol/gasoline car before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla release Dojo training-as-a-service before 2027?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced.
- Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
- To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit.
- Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice.
