PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 98%+29.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$23.1K
Liquidity
$24.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
92.2% / 96.7%
Spread
4.9%
Moderate spread7d Change
+86.5%
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Mar 10, 26, 3:17 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3198%
Volume trend
$23.1kJul 222d of dataJul 23
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnoiarske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.419117° N, 37.125165° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.