PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 25%+0.1%
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$23.3K
Liquidity
$3.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
24.0% / 25.0%
Spread
4.2%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 12:50 AMJul 12, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes25%
Volume trend
$23.3kJul 85d of dataJul 12
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On July 7, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 12, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2074548242386178258).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces a qualifying extension of access to "Claude Fable 5" beyond July 12, 2026, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- A qualifying extension requires Fable 5 to remain included in standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on at least one of the Pro, Max, or Team plans.
- An extension covering only the Enterprise plan does not qualify.
- The percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as some portion of the included allowance can be spent on Fable without drawing from a usage-credit balance.