PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
October 1 - 31, 51.5%-1.5ptLeader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$17K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.4 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-17.3 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 6, 26, 4:26 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiWhich month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
PolymarketWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before January 1, 2027?
ForecastExWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before October 1, 2026?
ForecastExOn the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
- A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
- The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold.
- A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
- If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
- The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).