PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 57.6%+28.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.2K
Liquidity
$9.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 4:02 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
KalshiWhen will the next Category 5 hurricane form?
KalshiHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWill at least 5 hurricanes form in the Atlantic Basin in 2026?
ForecastExWill at least 7 hurricanes form in the Atlantic Basin in 2026?
ForecastExWill at least 9 hurricanes form in the Atlantic Basin in 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).
- Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET).
- The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
- A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
- A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane.
- Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification.