PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (100%)
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, 6:05 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Current implied probabilityNo 100%
Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$154.2
Liquidity
$5.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.8%
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 27 days ago
StaleJan 29, 26, 10:31 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
0%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $154.2 | $5.7K | 27 days ago | |
 Limitless95% match · verified | Low | 75% | — | $0 | $0 | 27 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
Closed
Resolved
No (75%)
75%
25%
15 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$378.8
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
- Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company.
- A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights).
- Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
- Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company.
- A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights).
- Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.