Current implied probability
Yordan Alvarez 73%+4.5ptLeader of 41 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$23.2
Liquidity
$146.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
72.0% / 74.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
+16.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 7:17 PMNov 13, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yordan Alvarez73%
Compare venues· Nick Kurtz
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 8% | 0pt | $23.2 | $146.3K | 12 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi90% match · verified | Low | 11% | +3pt | $5 | $19.5K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
AL Hank Aaron Award Winner?
4mo
75%
11%
8%
+38 more outcomes
43 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$25.6K
24h Vol$5
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award.
- In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules.
- If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
- If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$23Jul 420d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award.
- In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules.
- If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
- If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.