PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability≤8 61%+8.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$712.5
Liquidity
$14.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.2% / 2.6%
Spread
116.7%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.3%
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Apr 2, 26, 10:34 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
≤861%
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.