PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: more than 13
Resolved: Oct 27, 2026, 1:20 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
more than 13
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 12:07 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
more than 13100%
70%
100%
110%
90%
80%
130%
more than 13Won
10Lost
11Lost
12Lost
13Lost
7Lost
8Lost
9Lost
≤6Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?
PolymarketHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?
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PolymarketWill at least 1% of all A/C units worldwide be replaced with energyless cooling alternatives by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill renewable energy sources surpass fossil fuels as the primary source of energy worldwide by the end of 2050?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
- This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded.
- If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude.
