PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability40-64 68%+25.0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$218.2K
Liquidity
$166.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.3% / 2.5%
Spread
8.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 4, 26, 4:00 PMJul 8, 26, 4:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
40-6468%
Volume trend
$218.2kJul 44d of dataJul 7
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This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 6 12:00 PM ET to July 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
- Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
- Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
- Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
- The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.