PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: <40 (100%)
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Current implied probability<40 100%+22.4%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$333K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Jul 16, 26, 4:07 PMJul 20, 26, 4:00 PM
Probability Timeline
<40100%
40-649%
90-1143%
65-896%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Large trades
$5.7k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026? — Yestianjiyuyunzhilu4h ago
POLYMARKETWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026? — Yestianjiyuyunzhilu4h ago$5.7k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026? — Notianjiyuyunzhilu4h ago
POLYMARKETWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026? — Notianjiyuyunzhilu4h ago$4.5k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026? — Nobuputong12h ago
POLYMARKETWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026? — Nobuputong12h ago$1.7k99.5%POLYMARKETWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026? — Noluca8814h ago
POLYMARKETWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026? — Noluca8814h agoVolume trend
$333.0kJul 165d of dataJul 20
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This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 18 12:00 PM ET to July 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
- Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
- Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
- Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
- The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.