Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 97.6%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 10, 24, 4:20 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will $TSLA close above $1000 per share by December 31 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if Tesla stock (TSLA) reaches or exceeds $700.00 at any point before market close (4:00 PM ET) on December 31, 2026.
- The market will resolve NO if the stock price fails to reach $700.00 by this deadline.
- Resolution will be based on official NYSE trading data, using regular trading hours only (pre-market and after-hours trading excluded).
- Stock splits will be adjusted for - the $700 target will be adjusted proportionally if any stock splits occur between market creation and resolution.
- If TSLA is delisted or acquired before the deadline, the market resolves NO.
