Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.1%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 18, 25, 12:42 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 3:26 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Universal Pictures officially announces a third theatrical film in the Wicked movie franchise.
- The announcement must come from Universal Pictures or a major entertainment news outlet (Variety, Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, or similar) confirming that a "Wicked 3" or equivalent third installment is in development or greenlit for theatrical release.
- This market resolves NO if: (1) Universal does not announce a third film by December 31, 2030, or (2) Universal explicitly states the franchise will conclude with two films, or (3) any announced third installment is cancelled before theatrical release.
- The Wicked film adaptation is structured as a two-part film that tells the story of Elphaba and Glinda's friendship and rivalry in the Land of Oz before and after the arrival of Dorothy Gale from Kansas.
- Wicked: For Good is scheduled to be released on November 21, 2025.