Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 61.3%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 28, 24, 12:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will @NickyCase consider herself a rationalist by 2027?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill I remain in Montreal past September?
Manifold MarketsWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
KalshiWhat will we name our second kid?
Manifold MarketsRules
A self-labeled rationalist (rat-adjacent/EA/longtermist), intentionally planned group house/apartment complex inhabited by at least 5 non-relatives, in Prague.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64+5.0pt48.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.1%
- <4013.6%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $44.9K
- 24h Vol
- $10.5K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No86%
- Yes+12.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $12.3K
- 24h Vol
- $4.5K
KALSHIWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- No87%
- Yes+1.0pt13%
- Total Vol
- $9.7K
- 24h Vol
- $1.7K
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-4.0pt75.3%
- Yes+4.0pt24.8%
- Total Vol
- $16.7K
- 24h Vol
- $939.6
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Is Earth flat?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- Harry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
- Will Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a rationalist group house in Prague before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 61% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will there be a rationalist group house in Prague before 2027? resolve?
- Will there be a rationalist group house in Prague before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be a rationalist group house in Prague before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A self-labeled rationalist (rat-adjacent/EA/longtermist), intentionally planned group house/apartment complex inhabited by at least 5 non-relatives, in Prague.