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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Will the Technological Singularity occur by January 1st, 2050?
Manifold Markets

Will the Technological Singularity occur by January 1st, 2050?

AITechOne-Off23y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Yes 50%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters

10

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Stale
Apr 8, 26, 12:46 PMDec 31, 49, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes50%

Rules

The Logic: I am setting this to 2050 because "normality" is just a mask we wear until something truly abnormal happens.

Manifold Markets
  • Most people are betting on 2030, but they are trapped in the hype of the present.
  • The "Win-Win" Hedge: If the Singularity happens earlier than 2050, I lose this bet.
  • But if the Singularity is here, money (and Mana) won't exist in a way we understand anyway.
  • I’m betting my Mana to prove that by the time this resolves, the prize won't even matter.
  • It’s a hedge against the apocalypse.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

The Logic: I am setting this to 2050 because "normality" is just a mask we wear until something truly abnormal happens.

Manifold Markets
  • Most people are betting on 2030, but they are trapped in the hype of the present.
  • The "Win-Win" Hedge: If the Singularity happens earlier than 2050, I lose this bet.
  • But if the Singularity is here, money (and Mana) won't exist in a way we understand anyway.
  • I’m betting my Mana to prove that by the time this resolves, the prize won't even matter.
  • It’s a hedge against the apocalypse.