Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.3%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleApr 24, 23, 4:42 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves be above 55% in the 2029 data release or before?
- "Yes" argument: There are no remotely worthy successors.
- The next most common reserve, the Euro, is likely in worse shape than the dollar.
- "No" argument: "Proponents of [dollar] regime change point to the steady fall in the dollar’s share of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves.
- That stood at around 59% in 2022, down from over 70% in 1999, according to the International Monetary Fund." - https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/global-markets-breakingviews-2023-02-28/
- Truth source will be IMF COFER survey data, or nearest equivalent if the IMF doesn't report on this by then.
